Modeling Earthen Dike Stability: Sensitivity Analysis and Automatic Calibration of Diffusivities Based on Live Sensor Data

摘要

The paper describes concept and implementation details of integrating afinite element module for dike stability analysis Virtual Dike into an earlywarning system for flood protection. The module operates in real-time mode andincludes fluid and structural sub-models for simulation of porous flow throughthe dike and for dike stability analysis. Real-time measurements obtained frompore pressure sensors are fed into the simulation module, to be compared withsimulated pore pressure dynamics. Implementation of the module has beenperformed for a real-world test case - an earthen levee protecting a sea-portin Groningen, the Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis and calibration ofdiffusivities have been performed for tidal fluctuations. An algorithm forautomatic diffusivities calibration for a heterogeneous dike is proposed andstudied. Analytical solutions describing tidal propagation in one-dimensionalsaturated aquifer are employed in the algorithm to generate initial estimatesof diffusivities.